SIMULATION / PHASE 02
Performance
Expectancy, cost and drawdown come before win rate.
Demo channel connecting
NET EXPECTANCY / TRADE+$8.63After $18.60 total costs
PROFIT FACTOR3.09Net wins / absolute net losses
MAXIMUM DRAWDOWN$15.00Peak-to-trough closed equity
AVERAGE WIN / LOSS$20.40 / $11.005 wins · 3 losses
SAMPLE SIZE8 tradesToo small for research conclusions
Net equity · fixture ledger
Eight chronological outcomes; USD account currencyWin rate 62.5%Consecutive wins 2 · losses 1
A high win rate can lose money
Economically poor90%Win rate
−$5.30Net expectancy / trade
−$53.00Net result
Nine $3 net wins cannot absorb one $80 net loss. This deterministic counterexample shows why win rate cannot be the optimisation target.
Profit factor 0.34 · drawdown $80.00n = 10 · DEMO
Performance breakdown
All values reconcile to the same eight-trade synthetic ledger.| Segment | Trades | Wins / losses | Net $ | Expectancy $ | Costs $ | Profit factor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBPUSD | 5 | 4 / 1 | 75.00 | 15.00 | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| EURUSD | 3 | 1 / 2 | -6.00 | -2.00 | 6.60 | 0.67 |
Average MFE 1.29 / MAE -0.61 pipsSample stability and out-of-sample evidence remain unvalidated