RESEARCH / PHASE 02

Leader–Follower

42 directed relationships. Observe the response still to come, after costs.

Demo channel connecting

Remaining opportunity

EURUSD → GBPUSD · illustrative directional response

Accepted

LEADER MOVE+2.10 pipsEURUSD · +3.0 Z

→

EXPECTED RESPONSE+1.10 pipsGBPUSD · 720 ms median

→

ALREADY OBSERVED0.20 pipsFixture frame 0 / 2

Response completion18%

Remaining+0.90pips

−

Spread0.18pips

−

Other costs0.05pips

Net remaining+0.67pips

Remaining response clears costs; stable relationship and adequate illustrative sample.

30m r +0.84 · stability 91% · n = 642 · fixture expectancy +0.38 pipsInspect relationship ↗

Response distribution

EURUSD → GBPUSD

Median720 ms

P75940 ms

P901,280 ms

P951,640 ms

Illustrative observations642

Fixture net expectancy+0.38 pips

Each direction is distinct. Response percentiles are authored fixtures; they are not measured from real ticks.

Directed relationship universe

7 instruments × 6 followers · 42 relationships · strategy fixture revision 3

Leader → follower	Return r	Stability	Sample n	Median	P90	Expectancy / pips	Eligibility	Reason
EURUSD → GBPUSD	+0.84	91%	642	720 ms	1280 ms	+0.38	Eligible	Remaining response clears costs; adequate sample.
EURUSD → USDJPY	-0.71	63%	99	447 ms	1053 ms	-0.18	Rejected	Relationship stability below draft threshold.
EURUSD → USDCHF	-0.76	64%	112	474 ms	1086 ms	-0.09	Rejected	Follower response already completed.
EURUSD → AUDUSD	+0.63	65%	125	501 ms	1119 ms	0.00	Rejected	Remaining response does not clear spread + costs.
EURUSD → XAUUSD	+0.31	66%	138	528 ms	1152 ms	+0.09	Rejected	Relationship stability below draft threshold.
EURUSD → XAUAUD	+0.18	67%	151	555 ms	1185 ms	+0.18	Rejected	Follower response already completed.
GBPUSD → EURUSD	+0.84	68%	164	582 ms	1218 ms	+0.27	Rejected	Remaining response does not clear spread + costs.
GBPUSD → USDJPY	-0.64	69%	177	609 ms	1251 ms	-0.27	Rejected	Relationship stability below draft threshold.
GBPUSD → USDCHF	-0.69	70%	190	636 ms	1284 ms	-0.18	Rejected	Follower response already completed.
GBPUSD → AUDUSD	+0.59	71%	203	663 ms	1317 ms	-0.09	Rejected	Remaining response does not clear spread + costs.
GBPUSD → XAUUSD	+0.27	72%	216	690 ms	1350 ms	0.00	Rejected	Relationship stability below draft threshold.
GBPUSD → XAUAUD	+0.16	73%	229	717 ms	1383 ms	+0.09	Rejected	Follower response already completed.
USDJPY → EURUSD	-0.71	74%	242	744 ms	1416 ms	+0.18	Eligible	Remaining response clears costs; adequate sample.
USDJPY → GBPUSD	-0.64	75%	255	771 ms	1449 ms	+0.27	Rejected	Relationship stability below draft threshold.
USDJPY → USDCHF	+0.72	76%	268	798 ms	1482 ms	-0.27	Rejected	Follower response already completed.
USDJPY → AUDUSD	-0.54	77%	281	825 ms	1515 ms	-0.18	Rejected	Remaining response does not clear spread + costs.
USDJPY → XAUUSD	-0.22	78%	294	852 ms	1548 ms	-0.09	Rejected	Relationship stability below draft threshold.
USDJPY → XAUAUD	-0.11	79%	307	879 ms	1581 ms	0.00	Rejected	Follower response already completed.
USDCHF → EURUSD	-0.76	80%	320	906 ms	1614 ms	+0.09	Rejected	Remaining response does not clear spread + costs.
USDCHF → GBPUSD	-0.69	81%	333	933 ms	1647 ms	+0.18	Rejected	Relationship stability below draft threshold.
USDCHF → USDJPY	+0.72	82%	346	960 ms	1680 ms	+0.27	Rejected	Follower response already completed.
USDCHF → AUDUSD	-0.58	83%	359	987 ms	1713 ms	-0.27	Rejected	Remaining response does not clear spread + costs.
USDCHF → XAUUSD	-0.24	84%	372	1014 ms	1746 ms	-0.18	Rejected	Relationship stability below draft threshold.
USDCHF → XAUAUD	-0.13	85%	385	1041 ms	1779 ms	-0.09	Rejected	Follower response already completed.
AUDUSD → EURUSD	+0.63	86%	398	1068 ms	1812 ms	0.00	Rejected	Remaining response does not clear spread + costs.
AUDUSD → GBPUSD	+0.59	87%	411	1095 ms	1845 ms	+0.09	Rejected	Relationship stability below draft threshold.
AUDUSD → USDJPY	-0.54	88%	424	1122 ms	1878 ms	+0.18	Rejected	Follower response already completed.
AUDUSD → USDCHF	-0.58	89%	437	1149 ms	1911 ms	+0.27	Rejected	Remaining response does not clear spread + costs.
AUDUSD → XAUUSD	+0.38	90%	450	1176 ms	1944 ms	-0.27	Rejected	Relationship stability below draft threshold.
AUDUSD → XAUAUD	-0.32	91%	463	1203 ms	1977 ms	-0.18	Rejected	Follower response already completed.
XAUUSD → EURUSD	+0.31	92%	476	1230 ms	2010 ms	-0.09	Rejected	Remaining response does not clear spread + costs.
XAUUSD → GBPUSD	+0.27	93%	489	1257 ms	2043 ms	0.00	Rejected	Relationship stability below draft threshold.
XAUUSD → USDJPY	-0.22	62%	502	1284 ms	2076 ms	+0.09	Rejected	Follower response already completed.
XAUUSD → USDCHF	-0.24	63%	515	1311 ms	2109 ms	+0.18	Rejected	Remaining response does not clear spread + costs.
XAUUSD → AUDUSD	+0.38	64%	528	1338 ms	2142 ms	+0.27	Rejected	Relationship stability below draft threshold.
XAUUSD → XAUAUD	+0.81	65%	541	1365 ms	2175 ms	-0.27	Rejected	Follower response already completed.
XAUAUD → EURUSD	+0.18	66%	554	1392 ms	2208 ms	-0.18	Rejected	Remaining response does not clear spread + costs.
XAUAUD → GBPUSD	+0.16	67%	567	1419 ms	2241 ms	-0.09	Rejected	Relationship stability below draft threshold.
XAUAUD → USDJPY	-0.11	68%	580	1446 ms	2274 ms	0.00	Rejected	Follower response already completed.
XAUAUD → USDCHF	-0.13	69%	593	1473 ms	2307 ms	+0.09	Rejected	Remaining response does not clear spread + costs.
XAUAUD → AUDUSD	-0.32	70%	606	1500 ms	2340 ms	+0.18	Rejected	Relationship stability below draft threshold.
XAUAUD → XAUUSD	+0.81	71%	619	1527 ms	2373 ms	+0.27	Rejected	Follower response already completed.

42 relationshipsIllustrative eligibility · no decisions executed